Tis the season for generosity and, for media, handing out bouquets and brickbats (whatever brickbats are!). So it’s my turn to say something nice, but this time I’m offering my praise and thanks to an unusual recipient – New Zealand’s weather forecasters.
In those surveys about the most trusted jobs or professions – you know, nurses and firemen at the top and journalists and politicians waaaay down at the bottom – I don’t think I’ve ever seen weather forecasters even offered as a choice. But I do know that they are one of the most frequently lampooned and put-down of all.
“They said that today would be sunny but look, the drizzle’s setting in.”
“Rain clearing, they said; and it hasn’t even started yet!”
“They just look at their computers in Wellington and guess, whereas I look at the sky and can work out that the wind will change from experience.”
This is exacerbated by the fact that the weather is one of the most common topics of small talk in social settings, especially when you don’t know what to say next; and that particular conversation is always more fun when you grouch about the weather forecast rather than say how accurate it may have been.
Disrespect for forecasters is also fostered by the words used by television weather presenters, who tend to say “Wellington will be raining but with sunny breaks later” rather than the more appropriate “In Wellington it’s predicted (expected? most probable?) that rain will fall this morning and ease this afternoon”. We the public don’t like to talk in terms of probability and uncertainty; we want it in black and white and get picky when other shades eventuate.
Several times over the past month, here in the Tasman district, we’ve been given longer range forecasts (like, 3 days away) that have said things like “Wednesday, a cool change about midday”, and they’ve actually happened as predicted to within an hour of midday. Three days away! Now I happen to think that that’s impressive. And even if it’s a day out, its waaaay better than I could have guessed on Sunday.
True, many people, and particularly people of the land who have farmed in a particular place for decades, do have a good feel for the weather patterns expected locally for up to a day, and can even guess details correctly for a couple of days. But on average I observe that the scientific forecasters, with the satellite and other tools available to them, are almost always far closer to the mark.
When I hear the forecasters castigated for getting it wrong a few days out, I would like to do an experiment with the critic: give me their 3-day forecasts every day for the next two weeks, without consulting the published forecasts, and see if their predictions can come at all close to those of the professionals when it comes to viewing the actual results. I can confidently say, not a chance!
So my Xmas praise goes to the weather boys and girls. Keep up the good work, don’t let the critics get to you, and be aware that I for one am prepared to take your forecasts as predicted probabilities.
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